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Previously, malaria risk was expected to broadly increase with warming climates; however, with peak transmission predicted at a lower ambient temperature, it is expected that climate warming will shift highly endemic areas to seasonal epidemics as suitability declines toward the upper thermal limit, and previously cooler, malaria free zones towards endemicity as temperatures approach the optimum .
These estimates suggest that small changes in temperature can dramatically alter the regions at risk for malaria transmission, and that impacts of climate warming on malaria transmission will not be uniform in magnitude or direction.
Early malaria models used linear estimates of mosquito and parasite physiology and estimated the thermal optimum for transmission at 31 °C [9, 10]; however, many of these biological processes are not linear, but instead are unimodal with a predicted optimum occurring at ambient temperatures regularly occurring in the environment.
When using more accurate unimodal (hump-shaped) curves derived from temperature-controlled experiments to describe the relationship between temperature and mosquito survival, development, reproduction, biting, and egg laying rates, vector competence, and parasite development rate in the mosquito [4, 11,12,13,14], this transmission optimum was revised to 25 °C and malaria transmission was predicted to be bounded by 17 °C and 34 °C .
Henrichsen, in a university press release published July 24.
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In high endemic settings such as these, malaria smear positivity may be used as a proxy measure for incidence [19,20,21,22].The parasite incubation rates and reproductive rates within the mosquito also affect malaria transmission .As mosquitoes are cold-blooded ectotherms, temperature affects each of these traits and, in turn, malaria transmission intensity.Malaria maps predicting changes in malaria intensity predict that the malaria belt will expand transmission further south, covering more of southern Africa, and will cause shifts from epidemic to endemic malaria transmission in regions such as in highland eastern Africa [16, 18].Documenting a relationship between temperature and malaria incidence and the nonlinearity of this relationship is critical to predicting the impact of future climate warming on alterations in malaria incidence and endemicity.